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The Black Swan

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas

The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility". Winner of the Wirtschaftsbuchpreis Finan

18,00

Versandkostenfrei in Europa, inkl. MwSt.

Verlag: Penguin Random House

Lieferstatus: lieferbar innerhalb 2-3 Tagen

Artikelnummer: A0143586

  • Versandkostenfrei in Europa, inkl. MwSt.
  • Kein Mindestbestellwert
The Black Swan

The most influential book of the past seventy-five years: a groundbreaking exploration of everything we know about what we don't know, now with a new section called "On Robustness and Fragility."

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible."

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb will change the way you look at the world, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility," which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan.

Eigenschaften


Verlag / Herausgeber: Penguin Random House

ISBN-13: 9780812973815

ISBN-10: 081297381X

Produktform: Softcover

Auflage: 2nd Ed.

Seiten: 480 Seiten

Gewicht: 344 Gramm

Größe (LxBxH): 20.20 13.20 2.50 cm

18,00

Versandkostenfrei in Europa, inkl. MwSt.

Verlag: Penguin Random House

Lieferstatus: lieferbar innerhalb 2-3 Tagen

Artikelnummer: A0143586

  • Versandkostenfrei in Europa, inkl. MwSt.
  • Kein Mindestbestellwert
 
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